Japanese exports likely rose more than 30% year-over-year in April, the strongest in more than a decade, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, but the base effect was a major factor after the sharp drop last year due to the initial impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
The world’s third-largest economy has recovered in large part due to strong demand abroad which has boosted production and exports, even as a resurgence in coronavirus infections dampens consumption.
Key data for next week includes machinery orders and consumer and wholesale prices, as well as first quarter gross domestic product figures to be released on Tuesday. Read more
Exports likely jumped 30.9% in April from a year earlier, marking the largest monthly increase since May 2010, according to a survey of 18 economists.
Imports are forecast to have increased 8.8% in April from a year earlier, which would translate into a trade surplus of 140.0 billion yen ($ 1.28 billion).
“Tighter semiconductor supply and demand appears to have had a minor impact on exports so far,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute.
“Export values rose sharply, 32.2%, in early and mid-April, partly in response to a sharp drop in the same month last year.”
A collapse in global trade due to supply chain disruptions from coronavirus lockdowns around the world dealt a heavy blow to Japan’s trade-dependent economy in April last year.
The Ministry of Finance announces trade data at 8:50 a.m. Thursday (11:50 p.m. GMT Wednesday).
Data on basic machinery orders, which exclude those for ships and electric utilities, is also expected to be released on Wednesday.
The poll showed that basic machinery orders in March are expected to have declined 2.6% from levels a year ago and increased 6.4% from the previous month.
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which includes petroleum products but excludes volatile fresh food prices, is expected to have fallen 0.2% in April from the same month a year earlier, according to the Reuters poll.
(1 USD = 109.5500 yen)
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